Could China’s population really be only half as big as we think it is?

Last year, the Chinese dissident, known simply as Lei, claimed that China’s population is less than 500 million and not the 1.4 billion claimed by official statistics.

Lei argues that mathematical calculations, based on China's fertility rate of 1.7, the one-child policy, and historical events like the Great Famine and Cultural Revolution, make it impossible for China to have reached 1.27 billion by 2000 from 500 million in 1950.

Now Lei has come up with further evidence that China has greatly exaggerated its population. In late January, she quoted another Chinese dissident as saying that the late Chinese premier Li Keqiang stated in May 2020 that China’s population was only 600 million.

Li Keqiang, once the second most powerful man in the ruling Chinese Communist Party, held a PhD in economics from Beijing University and was widely known for his expertise in statistical economics, according to Lei.

A long-time rival for the presidency with Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang also stated in 2020, during the National People’s Congress, that 600 million Chinese still lived on less than 1,000 yuan (about $140) a month, thus contradicting Xi Jinping’s claim the poverty had been eradicated in China.

Li Keqiang was subsequently sidelined by Xi Jinping and retired as premier in 2023. He died in October 2023 of a sudden heart attack while swimming at the age of just 68.

Gu Wanming, a former senior journalist from the state news agency Xinhua, was jailed and saw his pension and medical coverage cancelled after he asked questions about the death of Li Keqiang. There have been claims that the former premier’s body was cremated before a full autopsy could be carried out.

Other analysts have also claimed that China’s population is smaller than the claimed figure. In 2022, Fuxian Yi, a senior at the University of Wisconsin, said he estimated that China’s 2020 population was 1.28 billion rather than the 1.41 billion census number reported and that fertility rates were lower than reported. He also estimated that China's population had been shrinking since 2018 – the government says the population has been in decline since 2022.

Why does any of this matter?

If the population is much lower than the official statistics suggest it is likely because China has been significantly overestimating the size of the younger age groups. That would mean the challenges posed by an

ageing population is much greater than anticipated.  These challenges include debt and deflation as the Wilson Quarterly explains:

“Local governments used to rely heavily on land sale and real estate development for its revenues and to pay off debts. Smaller groups of marriageable young people directly contribute to a cooling real estate market, which in turn worsens local governments revenues. At the same time, increasing expenditures on health care and pension payout for a bulging elderly population adds to fiscal pressures. Concerns for old age support, without an adequate and equitable social safety net, could further dampen consumer spending.”[i]

[i] https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/the-great-population-shakeup/china-reaches-demographic-point-of-no-return